[WHAT IF #6] WHAT IF D-DAY HAD FAILED?

[Bootie]

If the massive multi-national Allied assault on 'Fortress Europe'(Operation Overlord) on the 6th June 1944 had been repulsed and slaughtered, with huge losses in men, arms & shipping, what would the future have held afterwards?

Would the Allies have managed to replace and replenish these losses, and maybe attempt another invasion months/years later (where? On S.France?)?

Would the Allies have sought for a stalemate, even if temporary, and what would Stalins reaction have been?

Could a now highly-alert Nazi German High Command, still holding Europe, be deceived by the Allies again, or beaten?

How could Britain have withstood the German V1 and V2 missile attacks from such close range (without the launch sites being pushed eastward)- time was running out as it was in reality, surely longer-range missiles fired at will would have blasted Britain apart?

Would the USA have returned to it's former isolationist status, refusing to risk sailing troops to England?

 

[Sempai]

If the massive multi-national Allied assault on 'Fortress Europe'(Operation Overlord) on the 6th June 1944 had been repulsed and slaughtered, with huge losses in men, arms & shipping, what would the future have held afterwards?

Would the Allies have managed to replace and replenish these losses, and maybe attempt another invasion months/years later (where? On S.France?)?

Of course, they would have replaced all losses! USA could still produce without fear of getting attacked by the Axis. So delivery to the Soviets would have been undisturbed. The Red Army was already winning battles by itself - and so long as the manufacturing in the CCCP goes on and the deliveries from USA come in there would be no problem at all.

Would the Allies have sought for a stalemate, even if temporary, and what would Stalins reaction have been?

That´s very probably, I think! But it would have in every case only temporary. Stalin would have seen to his advantage. In public he would have scourged the west allies for their reservation in attacking. In secret he would have crowed over their failure and used it to get more political influence - maybe even on the west allies - but definitely by other parties he would think of as helpful in the future.

Could a now highly-alert Nazi German High Command, still holding Europe, be deceived by the Allies again, or beaten?

Maybe not deceived but beaten! The west allies already had got a hold at Sicily and Italy area. What would have changed in my eyes would have been the way of fighting of the Germans. In fact the Germans already fought a two frontiers war. D-Day would have been the opening for the third. Westwall would have gotten a much higher preference. Probably the not occupied part of france would have been annexed so the ranks would have been closed with Spain. With Stalin insisting on the "second" front the allies could have come on the idea to invade Spain or Portugal. Franco would have been forced to quit his "neutrality" and fresh spanish soldiers would have strengthened the axis ranks. Spain woud have fallen in civil war added to the already ongoing WW2 then.
The allies had to strengthen the defense of the colonies at Africa since Spain would have been a perfect base to infiltrate Morocco and Algier. The mere possibility would have slowed down the advance of the allies from Italy. Maybe even Gibraltar would have been fallen if the axis forces had time enough to starve out the garrison. May it be as it may - the focus had changed dramatically on the southern front. V2 and V3 could have get installed and used widely. In the worst case for the allies London would have been the pledge and Britain had to quit the war because of the V-weapons. That would have get the Germans more time yet. But now the front in the south would have strengthened and established to launch a new attack in direction of the german motherland. This attacking forces would have to deal with their own two-frontiers-war if advancing into Germany. But still it would have been managable because of the high production rate at the US homeland. The germans had concentrated on holding back the soviets and rather let the west allies take Berlin and Germany. Nobody calculated with the possibility POWs of the west allied would sent to the east allies after the war. One hoped to get better terms for surrendering - maybe even a peace treaty.

How could Britain have withstood the German V1 and V2 missile attacks from such close range (without the launch sites being pushed eastward)- time was running out as it was in reality, surely longer-range missiles fired at will would have blasted Britain apart?

Not apart! Only the most important areas to get the british out of the war. And if the thing would have go well for the axis they had overtaken Britain as their base. And one would have been keen to to get so much production facilities as possible. That would grant a further strengthening of the war economy of the Third Reich. Level bombers as the Lancaster could have been in german service then. Strategical Level Bombing would have been a real threat for the russians.

Would the USA have returned to it's former isolationist status, refusing to risk sailing troops to England?

No, they had no choice! The America Bomber was in development, british kingdom out of the war or at least no secure haven for US forces anymore and the communists gained more and more power. If USA had stayed away that would have been a political desaster and the CCCP would have been the beneficiary. All the nice developments one wanted from the Germans would have gone to the soviets only. Can You imagine the change of history if that would have happened?

Greetings

 

[Cargol]

I dont think that if D-Day had failed the outcome of the war would have been different.
A failed landing attempt would have meant maximum 2-3 Divisions lost in the landings plus 1-2 division lost out of the airborne troops, a fraction of the overall forces massed into England for Operation Overlord.
But given the fact that almost at the same time operation Bagration started in the Eastern Front, an operation which resulted in the destruction of Army Group Center, it would have been probable that the Soviets would have reached earlier in the Reich and put under their boot more territory than the one they actually did,leading in a totally different post world war Europe.
Also a failed Operation Overlord given the lack of landing craft and the huge logistical difficulties most probably would have meant that the Allies wouldnt be able to try again for at least 1-1/2 year.

 

[Bootie]

So would the Reds have marched onto France...?

 

[Cargol]

So would the Reds have marched onto France...?

That's hard to tell as they needed first to overrun the whole Germany, but as in France the local communist party was quite strong it would have been probable to take over the reign and France to slip into the hands of Soviet Russia.
After all this was part of the Soviet doctrine,and it continues to be in a way till now, when they wanted to intervene in another country.They were supporting the local communist party and when they were able they were actively intervene.

 

[Rico]

So would the Reds have marched onto France...?

The Reds would've at least made it to the Rhine ... probably taken them until late-autumn or winter 1945 earliest.

Germany was on its last legs -- even with the failed invasion, it's fuel and transport infrastructure would have become increasingly catastrophic as Allied air campaigns against that would have continued and Ploesti oilfields would have been lost by Sept/Oct 1944 anyway.

By second half 1944, it really didn't matter in long term what weapons Germany would bring to bear -- the fuel and fully trained manpower (especially air crew) was just not there in sufficient numbers to make a difference ... maybe stretch the war into 1946 at best.

 

[Badger73]

So would the Reds have marched onto France...?

They, (USSR) would have certainly secured Greece and Austria more firmly instead of losing those areas in the post-war elections.

During a 1944-1945 interim of no ETO operations, the US could and would have committed more forces in the Pacific directly against Japan but also possibly more concerted efforts in Burma and SE Asia. The Italian campaign would have shaped differently as well. I think the real nightmare would have been US leadership successfully arguing for the 1946-1947 use of atomic bombs against a more entrenched Nazi Regime in Europe.

 

[Nathangun]

Germany would have been nuked eventually like Japan if the landings failed.

 

[Strangelove]

Germany would have been nuked eventually like Japan if the landings failed.

IMO stalin would have won the war with minor help from GB and USA and before the first Nuclear bomb would have been made available.

GB and US would have pushed through italia and perhaps southern France.

EU would have probably been "Union of European Soviet states" after war.

And there would not be any "stay or not for GB" thread except on two by two discussions in a basements and with ongoing spying from KGB (and subsequent goulag transfert).

 

[Trakks]

A failed D-Day invasion would have dragged the war out longer, that's for sure. Possibly even long enough for Germany to be able to mass produce some of the superweapons that they never got around to completing or putting into full production. If they had won the race for the A-bomb, they had a more than capable platform for using them in the V2 rockets. If they had managed to mass produce their jet fighter designs, it would have led to another Battle of Britain only with Britain on the losing side this time. If they had enough of them to put an Stg44 into the hands of every soldier on the battlefield, it would have meant far more casualties suffered by allied infantrymen. With the Axis in a better position to win the war Mussolini may have never been deposed and executed, keeping Italy in it for the long haul. With vastly superior weapons, a second attempt at invasion would also have been even less likely to succeed than the first. The element of surprise would also have been lost, so the Germans would have been prepared for marine landings across a much wider front. we are also forgetting what the Japanese would have been doing all this time while the war in Europe continued to drag on. The allies were only able to turn their full attention to Japan after V-E day. If V-E day were delayed or never happened, the war in the Pacific would also have gone badly. A failed D-Day would have been disastrous to the outcome of the entire war.

 

[Michael Dorosh]

I recently published an article on D-Day variants in War Diary magazine. Many like to think that Allied invasion forces on D-Day were too big to fail, but the truth is, the invasion was a very-near run thing. There were a number of things that could have gone wrong, and they would have had different effects on the war:

• Timing - the invasion almost went ahead on June 5. High winds and tides would probably have made the airborne landings more costly, and not helped the amphibious landings - many of the DD tanks were swamped as it was on June 6. A disaster with the airborne may have made it more difficult to relaunch with a large airborne component - though at least two other airborne divisions (17th US and 1st British) would have been in reserve.
• Airborne Assault - there was a lot of hand-wringing about what to do with the paratroopers. Marshal (US Army chief of staff) wanted to drop them as far away from the beaches as possible to maximize confusion. His plan was tempered by common sense, but elements of SHAEF predicted catastrophic losses for the airborne. If Eisenhower had given in to these disastrous predictions, perhaps the airborne would not have been utilized at all, or in numbers too small to affect the outcome. German forces would have had greater freedom of action certainly against the western (American) zones, and in the east, the Germans could have built up a firm line on the Orne, with the bridges to counterattack the flank of the British zone.
• Landing Craft - the most tenuous element of the Allied invasion force was the number of available landing craft. When one or two LSTs were sunk during Exercise TIGER (the Slapton Sands incident), the Allies lost their whole reserve of LSTs for the Normandy invasion. Other craft were being delivered up to the wire. If D-Day turned out to be a disaster, the largest issue facing the Allies in deciding to remount would not have been men, tanks or guns - the Americans were providing plenty - but of how many landing craft would still be available for a second attempt. If enough landing craft were lost at Normandy, it could well have delayed a second attempt for months.