Strange/Funny Algorithm in CMX2

[Nemesis]

Since I posted this......I ran a 6 month experiment on this in my PBEMs.

Methodology:

--I only looked at my casualties in 4.5 games (2.5 ladder, 2 non-ladder) as I played them. One game is incomplete, hence the 0.5 game.

--ONLY the FIRST casualty in an infantry partial team (all of my infantry squads are divided and my units are all partial teams) that MUST contain a MG42, MG34, BAR, or Bren is counted.

--After the FIRST man is hit in the partial team, I no longer track that team. If a man is hit and left in yellow condition, I just threw the data point out.

--Multiple casualty scenarios (multiple men being hit simultaneously) are discarded.

--I only looked at teams from infantry squads--no HMGs or LMG teams were included.

--Infantry teams were sorted by size and then assigned a neutral hit probability. For example, in 3 man teams, every man has a 33.33% chance of being hit. In a 4 man team, every man has a 25% chance of being hit. Etc..

--I looked at the gunner's actual rate of being hit vs. their predicted neutral chance of being hit. Unlike @Hardradi , I made no distinction between soldiers other than gunner vs non-gunner. So "non-gunners" included squad leaders, riflemen, anti tank soldiers, radio men, scoped rifles, SMGs, grenadiers, etc..).

With 108 instances, gunners had a ~33% greater chance of being hit than other squad members.

Someone wiser in statistics might be able to comment on how valid an N of 108 is.

 

[Ithikial]

With 108 instances, gunners had a ~33% greater chance of being hit than other squad members.

Someone wiser in statistics might be able to comment on how valid an N of 108 is.

This came up a few years ago on the BF forums. I think the explanation was that the if the shooting unit is not suppressed/under threat themselves there was the an increased chance they'd take out an 'important' person in their targeted team. (Assuming they had LOS and LOF). Think of it as if you are the one ambushing the enemy, who are you going to target if given free choice? A man holding a bolt action rifle or an LMG?

My memory is a little hazy of that discussion though so I could be way off. @A Canadian Cat <-- guru of stuff.

Edit: And I just typed the same thing I typed a year ago. Should read thread histories before opening my mouth.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

I don't remember a particular discussion but it is possible. I was going to say, first if all nice work, and then say some favouring of hitting a gunner would probably be expected. They are front and centre when firing. They will be the bigger target since they will be up more and have nuzzle flash guiding the enemy. I have no idea if 33% more likely is a reasonable amount.