Coronavirus

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HOA_KSOP said:
Cripes, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out you broaden the test base you are going to see increased numbers.
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Indeed. That's part of why I am not a fan of comparing testing results (my example of Quebec testing 1/3 as much as Ontario and yet having 3 times the deaths shows that comparing test results is challenging). I would much rather look at death rate or hospitalization rate.

I will point however every media report I have heard about US testing has pointed out that the proportion of tests coming back positive are on the rise. That measure is a bit of an effort to be able to compare results between jurisdictions or at least detect trends early.

HOA_KSOP said:
What will be interesting to see is where the fatality rate ends up when this is all done. Although it will never ever completely go away.
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I do hope we can get it to going away- see below...

HOA_KSOP said:
I saw in the paper where the gov has already awarded a 2 billion vaccine contract to a company. Sorry, have not read the details yet. But all tests so far are positive. As studies have shown, the antibodies don't stay in some folks systems for very long, so a vaccine will probably have to be administered yearly like the flu shots.
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That's the Oxford group's vaccine. It does look promising. The thing to remember is out bodies immune system has two mechanisms (and I just learned about this so I sure hope I don't mess this up) T cells and B cells. Both systems can remember an invader and mobilize a fight the next time they counter it. The B cells create the anti bodies and the T cells attack on their own. While the anti bodies do fade the B and T cells can still be there to defend us against the same invader again.

So, the fact that anti bodies fade over a few months does not necessarily mean that a person can get reinfected. If they have those B and T cells that also remember the invader they the cannot.

For a vaccine to work the best it should trigger both a response form the B and the T cells. Early data is said to show that the Oxford vaccine does that: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839

I keep hearing that I should keep my enthusiasm in check since that's all nice and everything but they don't know yet how well it protects people. This latest trial they just started should give them data about that.
 
A Canadian Cat said:
I will point however every media report I have heard about US testing has pointed out that the proportion of tests coming back positive are on the rise. That measure is a bit of an effort to be able to compare results between jurisdictions or at least detect trends early.
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I would say that trend is skewed. Here's why. Most people who are being tested have visible symptoms already, so that tells me that yes, the potential for positive test results is greater because the tests are mainly being administered to symptomatic people anyway. It still plays into the whole as MORE symptomatic people are going to be tested because the test is more widely available. So I understand why there is a positive trend.
 
mTk said:
We need to figure out a way to get the people in the U.S. back to work sooner rather than later.
If we can tire their arses out then they'll be too damned fatigued to riot every night from midnight to three a.m.!
Yeah, I'm looking at you Portland!
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Hey now, they're masked up in Portland, they're doing their part, give 'em a break...

 
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Learned something new about masks today. If you are wearing one of those masks with an "exhaust vent", you may be protecting yourself, but that exhaust vent lets out unfiltered air, so you aren't protecting those around you very much.
 
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Meat Grinder said:
Learned something new about masks today. If you are wearing one of those masks with an "exhaust vent", you may be protecting yourself, but that exhaust vent lets out unfiltered air, so you aren't protecting those around you very much.
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Dammit MG, would you quit venting about the masks!

Now, time for some HOA math.

I see today in the US that approximately 4.3 million people have tested positive for the virus and 150,000 have passed. That makes for a mortality rate of about 3.5%. But the antibody studies offer strong evidence that indicates that anywhere between 10 to 13 times the number of people may have antibodies and have therefore had COVID at some point. So taking the 10 times (lower) multiplier, that means that at a minimum 43 million Americans have had COVID at some point, in varying severity and evidence shows that 80% of those people were more than likely asymptomatic. So, if that's the case, then the death rate falls 0.35%, that being 150000 divided by 43000000. I have read that when this is all done the overall death rate in the US will probably be between 0.5% to 2%. Two percent of 331000000 is 6,620,000 on the upper end. The percentage seems small but the 6 million number is huge.
 
Finally found some statistics for the county where I live.
We've been good little citizens. Wherein the Governor last week closed down most businesses in the state again (all but 9 counties IIRC) my county, San Mateo, was not on the list (although we are back on the "watch" list which is a 3-day probation kinda thingie). This means I can eat outside in public and get another haircut if need be. I can also (maybe) get fined for not wearing a mask outside.
The stats:
- Confirmed cases since April: 5306
- Population 771,000
- Total deaths 118
- New cases today 89
- Deaths by ages (60+=15) (70+=18) (80+=41) (Others = 44)
- Cases by race: Hispanic 2576/ White 731/Asian 549/Black 58
- Population by race: Hispanic 191k/ White 375k/Asian 234K/ Black 18K
- Cases by City: Coastside total-144 /Half Moon Bay- 87 /Montara - 10.
 
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